You wouldn't think this was just the start of Ontario's election campaign, because it seems to have been going on since at least August. But Monday marks the official day the race to the polls begins, as Dalton McGuinty headed to newly installed Lt.-Gov. David Onley to dissolve the Legislature and declare the election a go.

It comes exactly a month before we head to the voting booths and allows election signs to begin sprouting across the province. But some candidates - like those in the hotly contested riding of Thornhill - have had their placards up for at least the past two weeks. That area may well be the template for what the major issues will be in the election. PC leader John Tory's public funding for faith-based schools appears to be the centerpiece of the campaign. Those who support it are fervently in favour, while others are opposed to footing the bill for someone else's religious teaching.

Tory argues it's a point of fundamental fairness and that giving money solely to one group - in this case, the Catholic system - is unfair. The Liberals counter it will take dollars away from public schools, create division and weaken education. The NDP is also opposed to the idea, while the Green Party wants a single public system for everyone.

And all the others are going after McGuinty on a record of broken promises and what they charge is a poor performance, wondering why the 71 promises on the Liberal platform weren't already initiated by the ruling party - and whether you can trust the new ones will be implemented.

But it's the funding question that may be the determining factor one way or the other on October 10th. A new Ipsos Reid poll finds if the vote were held today, the Liberals would win a slight majority, with 41 per cent support. The Conservatives would be second at 36 per cent. And the NDP and the Greens would be bringing up the rear at 17 and 6 per cent respectively. The survey also shows a full 62 per cent oppose faith-based funding, while only 35 per cent support it.

And while many agree that the McGuinty Liberals have failed to keep their promises and would like to see change, that one issue may be enough to sway their vote either way. 

And according to pollster John Wright, you'll be hearing that broken record for the next 30 days. "We're going to see an emphasis on results versus broken promises, where the Liberals are going to talk about, well, we've done the following five things, and Tory's going to come at him ... saying it's time for a change. On the other hand we're going to see Mr. Hampton talking about environment, energy, homelessness, and when you look over all of the polling and all of the numbers, it will probably come down to about 30 seats in the entire province that will tell the tale, and more importantly about 15 to 17 that really are in play at the moment, and that will mean the difference as to who holds power."

But despite Hampton lagging in third place, he could turn out to hold the balance of power if a minority or slim majority is what voters pick in October.

Beyond choosing the candidate of their choice, they'll also get the chance to answer another question, with the first referendum on the ballot in more than 80 years. It will be asking if you want future votes to be based on proportional representation. That means the majority of MPPs would be elected in the old fashioned way, while others would be chosen from a list made up by the parties themselves to better reflect the popular vote. Despite the importance of such a change, most voters asked admit they haven't heard about it. To find out more about the question and what it means, click here.

• CP24 is one of several stations in Ontario taking part in this year's election debate - and we want to know what you want to ask the party leaders. To find out how to submit your question by email, text message or video, click here. And then watch September 24 ^th at 6:30pm to hear the answers.

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